《本地樓市》美聯:75%受訪者支持進一步撤辣 樂觀情景下料今年樓價回升5%
美聯物業最新的一份「置業意向調查」顯示,75%的受訪者,支持政府於即將公布的《財政預算案》中再次減辣或「全面撤辣」,多達41.2%的受訪者表示,如《財政預算案》中提出有效的救市方案,將加快入市,較去年10月進行的同類調查高出近13.3個百分點。美聯物業住宅部行政總裁布少明認為,調查結果反映市民希望政府面對樓市下滑的現實,儘快出手救市,以穩定樓價,加快經濟復甦,亦避免市民投資於物業的財富蒸發。
美聯物業住宅部行政總裁布少明,隨著購買力回升,預計春節後有「小陽春」,如進一步撒辣,樓市將會回穩。
美聯物業首席分析師劉嘉輝表示,自從去年10月《施政報告》落實減辣後,迄今約15個星期,減辣後無論一手及二手住宅交投均略為好轉,但仍未及去年首十個月未減辣前水平。住宅交投疲弱的同時,樓價更進一步下滑。「美聯樓價指數」最新報135.42點,減辣後的15星期累計下跌約6.3%,明顯比起減辣前15周跌約5.5%更大,反映減辣後樓價跌勢更大,而最新樓價比起去年高位已跌約12.8%。
至於與經濟息息相關的恆生指數,於減辣後走勢依然反覆向下,2月7日恆指收市為16,081點,減辣後仍下跌約5.4%;雖然比起減辣前約8.1%跌幅為少,但仍然明顯反映減辣後恆指跌勢末止,相比起去年高位,最新更已累跌約29.1%。
由此可見,市場一直擔心減辣會令樓價反彈的預測,可謂過於憂慮。以現時的經濟情況推斷,即使全面撤辣,樓價亦難以大幅回升,但相信對穩定樓市有正面的幫助。事實上,減辣有助交投回升.但力道未夠.呼籲撤辣為樓市「拆牆鬆綁」,令物業交投正常流通,助樓市「軟著陸」,減低樓市調整帶來的影響。
布少明認為,因應外圍因素仍存在不必變數,新一年本港樓市難免波動。不過,隨著購買力累積,加上發展商的低價推售策略推動,料今年初春節前後,本港樓市有力爆發「小陽春」。惟當購買力及筍盤消耗,交投將轉歸沉寂,其後的樓市走勢或再現反覆。
不過,布少明強調,末來樓市不乏利好因素,例如美國息口已見頂,市場更預期今年或減息達0.75厘.如政府提出合適的房策配合發展,於《財政預算案》中順應民意進一步減辣甚至全面撤辣,刺激經濟與樓市,將令本港樓市價量齊齊回穩。在樂觀的情況下,預計今年一手成交將按年升約43%至1.5萬宗水平,惟宗數較2021年仍低約9%。二手方面,估計今年全年有望得5萬宗左右,雖較去年升近四成,有望打破近兩年的二手悶局,但較2021年仍低約16%。樓價則料將升約5%。
租金方面,相信隨著愈來敷多專才到港發展,刺激樓市租賃需求,估計租金將延續去年強勢,今年全年料升約10%,連續3年走勢「跑贏」樓價。
他續解釋,樓價升勢是考慮到撤辣及美國減息因素,屆時累積購買力將會釋放,又強調現時準買家仍持觀望態度,入市信心仍然疲弱。
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