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研報掘金|中金:預計去年中資保險業淨利潤跌26% 股息有望保持穩定
格隆匯 02-06 11:02

中金髮表報吿指出,中資保險行業2023年年報季將於3月21日開啟,該行預計行業壽險新業務價值(NBV)按年增長16%,其中中國太保料增長24.6%;中國平安料升23.6%;國壽料升12.8%;新華保險料升11.2%;中國太平料升9%,隱含去年第四季太保/平安單季NBV按年各跌31%,主因定價利率調整的短期影響及假設調整等因素,該行重申看好負債端新週期,預計行業NBV今年首季實現兩位數增長、全年高個位數增長。

此外,該行預期去年中資保險業財險綜合成本率按年增長0.6個百分點,中資保險行業淨利潤跌26%,主要由於權益虧損以及準則切換致淨利潤跌幅較大,另料股息有望較為平穩。該行認為,平安、中國財險每股紅利或將持平,其他公司股息變動幅度至少將大幅好於利潤下行幅度。長期角度該行依舊看好負債端改善帶來的投資機會,短期內資產端或將使股價較為波動,建議把握波段機會提高收益,推薦太保/平安/國壽等。

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