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《大行報告》交銀國際料網易-S(09999.HK)季績符預期 評級「買入」
交銀國際發表報告指,網易-S(09999.HK)近期遊戲《蛋仔派對》內容有先發優勢,在競品上線後加大營運力度,近期其iOS日流水/下載量反超競爭產品,預計派對遊戲賽道維持競爭激烈,春節期間營銷投入或持續,但對利潤的影響會部分被遊戲渠道分成優化所抵銷。網易繼續拓展品類佈局,女性向《世界之外》1月上線,首月流水約1.5億至2億元人民幣(下同),射擊遊戲《螢火突擊》搜索熱度領先其他待上線射擊遊戲。 交銀國際預計,網易第四季收入按年增12%至284億元,市場預期爲283億元。預計調整後淨利潤79億元,與市場預期一致,按年增65%。預計遊戲及增值服務收入/有道/雲音樂收入按年升17%、升0%,以及跌17%:遊戲增長受新手遊帶動;有道以扭虧爲盈爲首要目標,低迴報硬件渠道業務調整帶來的影響有望在2023年四季度結束;雲音樂收入下降主要因社交娛樂業務調整影響,預計音樂業務毛利率改善和直播分成收窄帶動調整後營運利潤維持按季擴張。 根據第四季流水追蹤數據表現,該行下調網易末季手遊收入預測約5%,並考慮遊戲營銷投入增加上調營銷費率、調整匯兌損益、投資收益預測,下調利潤預測,預計2023年經調整淨利潤增45%至330億元。 交銀國際預計網易2024年遊戲收入增13%,其中手遊增15%。2024年網易重點遊戲關注武俠RPG,該賽道競爭較二次元/射擊賽道緩和,網易具備領先優勢,增長確定性更強。維持H股目標價206港元及「買入」評級。
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