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《大行報告》匯豐研究普遍降內銀股目標價 看好建行(00939.HK)及招行(03968.HK) 港銀看好中銀(02388.HK)
匯豐環球研究指,內地及本港股市跑輸亞洲市場,部分與美元加息損害有關股份吸引力、房地產市場負財富效應、減薪導致通縮憂慮及行業規管變化減少企業盈利確定性有關。 該行指,大中華銀行股價值重估有多條路徑,但為宏觀多於微觀,包括採取市場友善監管、美國減息、中國減息、派息股拾起動力、通縮憂慮緩和、國家人市支持市場及大型國有銀行、動用存款承擔更多風險及來自中東相關的投資。但仍面臨多項挑戰,包括減息拖累淨息差、透過增量及交易利潤增加抵銷財富相關費用收入減少、在增加支援財困內房及地方政府下維持資產質素,在減低加權風險集中下維持資本充足及派息,以及平衡新增不良貸款與存款準備金釋放。 該行偏好更能應對上述挑戰的銀行,包括派息穩定、高於同業股本回報率及有國家入市支持可能的建行(00939.HK),執行差異化策略及具執行能力,且財富管理需求可能好轉的招行(03968.HK),以及資本狀況領先,在跨境業務具強勁捕捉能力的中銀香港(02388.HK)。該行對銀行股去年至2025年盈利預測調整幅度介乎下調9.4%至上調3.3%。 以下為該行對銀行股最新投資評級及目標價(只列H股): 股份│投資評級│目標價 工行(01398.HK)│買入│5.2元->4.9元 建行(00939.HK)│買入│6.3元->6.1元 中行(03988.HK)│買入│3.8元->3.6元 農行(01288.HK)│買入│3.4元->3.3元 郵儲行(01658.HK)│持有│3.9元 交行(03328.HK)│買入│5.8元->5.6元 招行(03968.HK)│買入│46元->42.4元 民行(01988.HK)│持有│2.6元->2.5元 光大銀行(06818.HK)│買入│3.15元->3.1元 中銀香港(02388.HK)│買入│25.8元->24.8元 東亞銀行(00023.HK)│持有│9.4元->9.3元
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