高盛:美經濟前景強勁抵銷孳息率上升對美股影響
高盛發表報告,稱美國經濟前景強勁有助美股抵住美債孳息率上升的衝擊,但若收緊貨幣政策等因素推高孳息率又或者孳息率升幅過快,情況有可能會發生變化。
報告提到,自去年7月長債孳息率開始上升以來,標普500指數以及10年期美債孳息率走勢相反,不過踏入2024年,雖然10年期美債孳息率上漲約30個點子至4.2厘,但股市仍創下歷史新高,因為美國經濟前景改善,預計隨著投資者對聯儲局大幅緊縮政策的預期減少,相信將有助減少今年股市與孳息率之間的負相關性。
高盛預計,標普500指數今年底的目標為5,100點,不過若聯儲局政策又或者美債供求變化而導致利率從目前水平大幅上升,股市有可能會陷入困境。
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