《大行報告》大摩料國企股正迎來「黃金時代」料中石油(00857.HK)改革走向淡馬錫模式
中石油(00857.HK)今早股價抽高5.7%報5.55元。摩根士丹利發表報告表示,認為中國國有企業的黃金時代(Golden Age)正在來臨,估計作為國營企業的中石油改革正走向「淡馬錫模式」,即公司可以透過多種方式創造價值。該行表示,中國國資委昨日表示在評估中央管理人員的管理時可能會包括市場價值管理國營企業。國資委將引導國營企業運用回購和分紅政策增強實力及股東回報,這將是邁向淡馬錫模式的另一舉措。
該行表示,就完善國有資本運作制度的新指導意見下,估計中石油能做到以下方面,第一是推動天然氣價格改革和價格自由化、第二是加強成本控制,提高營運效率、第三是分拆資產,該行指中石油H股現價相當於今年市盈率5倍、自由現金流收益率25%,如同中石化(00386.HK)先前行銷資產分拆方案,中石油或可分拆資產並單獨拆出下游資產,以最大化市場價值。
第四是更多天然氣下游整合、第五是提高股利和回購,大摩認為中石油2023年自由現金流(FCF)是三大石油公司中最高的,認為有足夠的空間增加相關支出。油價波動下,天然氣價格改革使中石油更具防禦性,因此該行認為中石油派息率和股息可以持續高企。此外,董事會先前曾提議授權回購無佔公司已發行股份10%以上。
大摩維持中石油「增持」評級及目標價7元。
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