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畢馬威:利率高企將持續推動今年銀行業收益
畢馬威發表最新《2024香港銀行業展望》報告,預計由於經濟情緒仍然低迷,銀行業面臨的挑戰將持續到2024年,並可能導致貸款增長放緩,而金融活動減少亦將影響銀行通過手續費和佣金所賺取的收入。 由於在2024年第三季度前降息的可能性不大,將為銀行業帶來利息收入,支撐全年收益。儘管信貸損失已成一大趨勢,但預計2024年許多銀行將會調整帳目結構,為未來發展做好準備。 畢馬威中國銀行業及資本市場香港主管合夥人宋家寧表示,2023年銀行業和香港整體經濟都喜憂參半。展望2024年,全球各國的選舉結果或會為經濟前景添上不明朗因素。不過考慮到息口下降、通脹緩和,以及有利營商的宏觀經濟前景,畢馬威依然保持謹慎樂觀。香港應該繼續重新定義並加強在「兩制」下的自身價值,不僅要成為中國的國際金融中心,更同時扮演連接世界各地的超級樞紐。 畢馬威中國香港金融服務業、銀行業高級合夥人馬紹輝(Paul McSheaffrey)表示,儘管未來一年香港銀行業未必會出現顯著增長,但瞬息萬變的市場中仍有機遇。在香港以外,許多地區的通脹可令環球經濟更趨穩定。鑑於2024年經營環境預計將持續充滿挑戰,銀行業界應優先提升營運效率和風險管理,以待在2025年恢復增長時把握回報。 未來一年,銀行業應確保能夠應對來自各方面的潛在風險,並緊貼香港與中國內地不斷變化的監管環境。與此同時,銀行應繼續積極尋找增長機會,例如大灣區的新興機遇。
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