《即日市評》美減息憧憬降 恆指「四連跌」科指挫半成
市場對美減息情緒冷卻,美國隔晚債孳息率創逾一個月最大單日升幅,亞股今日捱沽,恆指再創逾十四個月低。美聯儲官員稱將以謹慎步伐減息,美股道指及納指隔晚各跌0.6%及0.2%;執筆之時,美國10年期債券孳息率升至4.064釐,美匯指數升至103.38,道指期貨最新跌129點或0.3%,納指期貨最新跌0.7%。內地公佈去年第四季GDP按年升5.2%(市場預期升5.3%)、去年全年GDP增長5.2%符合預期、去年12月規模以上工業增加值按年升6.8%(市場預期升6.6%)、去年12月零售銷售按年升7.4%(市場預期升8%)。上證綜指全日跌60點或2.1%收2,833點,深證成指跌2.6%,而滬深兩市成交額共6,375億人民幣。
恆指低開101點後跌幅擴大,曾跌670點一度低見15,194點,全日跌589點或3.7%,收15,276點(連跌四日,累跌1,025點或6.3%);國指全日跌210點或3.9%,收5,132點;恆生科技指數跌165點或5%,收3,160點。大市全日成交總額增至1,305.4億元,滬、深港通南下交易淨流入45.73億及24.81億元人民幣。港交所(00388.HK)股價跌3.6%。
【恆指四連跌 科網股捱沽】
減息憧憬降溫,科技股捱沽,騰訊(00700.HK)跌2.8%報274.6元,阿里(09988.HK)、百度(09888.HK)及網易(09999.HK)跌3.6%至4%,小米(01810.HK)跌4.9%,京東(09618.HK)及快手(01024.HK)跌逾6%,美團(03690.HK)及嗶哩嗶哩(09626.HK)跌7%及7.1%。
摩根大通發表報告指,去年內地科網股的整體表現,受市場下調前景預測影響,展望今年,由投資收益推動的選股策略,將會繼續提供良好風險回報。今年的主題包括內地跨境電商在國際市場的牽動力提升;生成式AI實現貨幣化;內地電商市場組合持續轉變;對股東投資回報更加重視。今年行業首選爲拼多多(PDD.US)、騰訊音樂(TME.US) 、網易(NTES.US)及百度(BIDU.US),建議今年需要避開美團及京東(09618.HK)。
【跌股千七隻 汽車股受壓】
港股今日市寬轉弱,主板股票的升跌比率爲5比40(上日11爲比31),下跌股份1,713只(跌幅4.3%),恆指成份股今日無股份上升,下跌股份82只,升跌比率爲0比100(上日爲7比91);大市今日錄沽空281.41億元,佔可沽空股份成交額1,150.55億元的24.459%(上日爲25.359%)。
車股受壓,比亞迪(01211.HK)挫4.8%,蔚來(09866.HK)及小鵬(09868.HK)跌9.8%及9.6%。中國乘用車市場信息聯席會公佈數據顯示,本週首兩週(1月1至14日)乘用車市場零售78.8萬輛,按年增長18%,較上月同期增長6%;新能源車市場零售22.6萬輛,按年同期增長33%,較上月同期下降21%。
摩根士丹利發表中國汽車行業報告表示,中國近一週乘用車市場銷售按周大致持平於43.75萬輛,新能源汽車近一週銷售按周跌1%,隨着理想汽車-W(02015.HK)及特斯拉(TSLA.US)近期減價,估計內地OEM汽車生產商可能會尋求削弱競爭對手。大摩表示,小鵬周銷量維持在1,400輛,而蔚來銷量降至1,700輛(按大摩1月9日報告指蔚來1月首周銷量3,000輛)。比亞迪上週銷量按周下滑9%至40,200輛的九個月低點。
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