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《大行報告》花旗料中國今年GDP按年增長4.6% 信心復甦可能是漫長過程
阿思達克 01-17 16:09
花旗發表報告表示,中國公布去年GDP年增率達5.2%,達到了「5.0%左右」的成長目標,但名義GDP(Nominal GDP)增幅由先前的4.8%降至4.6%,GDP平減指數(GDP deflator)為-0.6%,通貨緊縮和分化模式對於信心復甦來說並不是好兆頭。 該行指,與此同時,內房板塊繼續震盪。由於房地產、政策和信心方面正在進行的「三個競賽」,2024年的情況看起來並不具有吸引力。該行繼續預期政策制定者將設定2024年「5.0%左右」的成長目標,並試圖透過財政和準財政政策實現投資拉動的成長穩定。 在政策及時有效實施之前,該行維持對中國2024年GDP按年增長4.6%的預測。 花旗認為,避免內地房地產過度修正可能是當務之急,重點將轉向三大項目的投資面。該行預計內地2024年將出現溫和的通貨再膨脹,政策實施可能與刺激規模同樣重要。由於信心仍然低迷,政策寬鬆的影響可能會減弱,該行認為信心復甦可能是一個漫長的過程。
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