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東亞:恆指今年目標19,500點 籲小心主題性炒作具風險
阿思達克 01-16 16:19
東亞銀行財富管理處投資策略師陳偉聰表示,雖然目前恆指跌破16,000點,但對恆指今年的目標是19,500點,預計屆時的預測市盈率為9倍,而恆指的支持位是15,400點,即市盈率約7.7至7.8倍。 另外,內地經濟增長動能仍然受制,但相信兩會將加碼推出財政刺激措施,預期恆指企業今年每股盈利可按年增長10%。 東亞銀行財富管理處首席投資策略師李振豪指,目前港股跌穿16,000點,相信是由於外資對內地經濟有保留,令外資淨流出較嚴重,並不排除恆指將再見低位。 他指,中國較大機會於2至3月降息降準,並預期美聯儲於上半年開始減息,全年累減3次共75點子,而美國減息將有助人民幣走勢。 他又提到,過去主題性炒作的持續性不高,平均持續時間介乎13至18個月,並在19個月開始套現回調,故要小心當前人工智能等主題的風險。 對於金價,李振豪指2,070美元是最大阻力位,而一旦環球出現極端風險如中東危機繼續擴大,即有機會支持金價升穿阻力位。
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