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郭明錤 : Android手機庫存回補即將結束 需求改善可能遜預期
天風國際分析師郭明錤表示,主要Android手機品牌自去年第三季開始的庫存回補,預計在今年1月結束。從出貨預估與訂單能見度的變化來看,Android手機需求改善可能低於市場預期。 他指出,目前非中國市場的中低階手機出貨預估已開始下修,普遍看到雙位數以上的「砍單」,新興市場當地品牌甚至有高達40%至50%以上的「砍單」。 中國市場在庫存回補後的需求是否有改善,需要視農曆過年前三周的銷售結果而定,但需要注意的是,自去年雙十一旺季結束後,整體出貨已開始出現按年衰退,雖然近期略有改善,但主要是為了農曆過年旺季備貨,不見得是因為市場需求轉佳。 除了出貨預估變化,訂單能見度也是判斷需求是否改善的關鍵因素。無論是中國或非中國市場,訂單能見度均自去年下半年的四至個月,縮短至今年上半年的約兩個月,可看出品牌廠商保守看待後續市場需求。 近期交易風險可能來自市場期等待庫存回補後見到需求結構改善。郭明錤認為,即使Android手機需求沒有結構性改善,下修空間也有限,但風險在於市場期待庫存回補後能見到需求改善。
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