《大行報告》高盛料MSCI中國指數今年潛在回報17% 薦三個投資主題
高盛發表中國市場報告指,中國股市在2023年又經歷困難的一年,MSCI中國指數和滬深300指數於去年各累跌13%及11%,連跌第三年及表現跑輸全球其他市場。該行最新估計MSCI中國指數和滬深300指數於2024年的回報率分別為17%和19%,因料中國企業年內盈利將增長約10%,受惠於政策有效落實,維持「增持」中國A股市場,維持對離岸中資股市場「與大市同步」評級。
高盛表示中國市場看好科技、媒體和通訊(TMT)、科技硬件、必需消費品和醫療設備股份;對內銀及內房相關股份的看法謹慎。
該行指中國市場今年具三個投資主題,第一是中國「重新平衡」組合;第二是選擇性高質國企,當中的港股包括建行(00939.HK)、潤地(01109.HK)、中石化(00386.HK)、財險(02328.HK)及青啤(00168.HK);第三是長期投資主題下的「小巨人」(Little Giants)(均為A股股份),因中國向附加價值曲線上游邁進、尋求培育國家龍頭企業,並提高各項技術為重點的行業自給自足能力。
高盛表示中國市場「重新平衡」組合的股份名單中港股及中概股包括騰訊(00700.HK)、拼多多(PDD.US)、阿里巴巴(BABA.US)、網易(NTES.US)、美團-W(03690.HK)、小米-W(01810.HK)、百度(BIDU.US)、比亞迪(01211.HK)、攜程(TCOM.US)、安踏(02020.HK)、銀娛(00027.HK)、百勝中國(YUMC.US)、申洲(02313.HK)、華潤啤酒(00291.HK)、華住(HTHT.US)、小鵬(XPEV.US)、紫金(02899.HK)、海爾智家(06690.HK)、名創優品(MNSO.US)及BOSS直聘(BZ.US)等。(wl/u)
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