《大行報告》花旗料內地增大型銀行支持 首選建行(00939.HK)等 調整內銀股目標價
花旗發表報告指,內銀今年繼續面對淨息差壓力,部分小型銀行淨息差可能低於可持續水平,有逼切需要減慢貸款增長以保存資本,因此相信內銀行業將會持續整合。在該行覆蓋的內銀中,大型國有銀行及具差異化業務模式的小型銀行,在爭取市場份額方面定位較佳,而潛在的輸家包括針對企業的股份制商業銀行(JSB)、針對地方政府融資工具(LGFV)的地區銀行、以及與大型銀行缺乏差異的非上市小型銀行。
該行建議採取槓鈴策略(Barbell strategy):買入大型國有內銀,主要因爲息率高、估值低,在波動市況下,提供下行屏障;買入具質素的地區銀行以平衡風險,主要因爲這些銀行具有差異化的業務模式,並且在內房及地方政府融資方面敞口有限。該行首選爲建行(00939.HK)及常熟銀行(601128.SH)。
報告認爲,大型銀行需要發揮支持實體經濟的角色,要維持風險加權資產增長,同時亦要保持派息穩定,在受到相關限制下,政府可能會對大型銀行的資本推出進一步支持措施,例如由現金充裕的國有企業支援、或實施新的資本要求等。
該行將覆蓋內銀2023至2025年度盈利預測下調1%至3%,以反映淨息差受壓、貸款增長放緩、銀保費用率下調,估計2023、2024及2025年度,平均盈利分別增長2.2%、2.3%及3.4%,並將內銀H股目標價平均下調4%。(花旗對內銀股最新目標價詳見另文)
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