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渣打財富管理料美國上半年可避免硬著陸 年內或減息125個基點
阿思達克 01-04 12:37
渣打財富管理北亞區投資總監鄭子豐稱,美國通脹放緩,雖然或未能達到2%的目標水平,但至少在今年上半年可避免硬著陸,下半年則繼續面臨衰退風險。 美聯儲政策立場從對抗通脹轉向支持增長,該行預測今年內或減息共125個基點,通脹降溫及經濟走弱導致債券收益率或再下降,美國10年期國債收益率未來6至12個月預測介乎3.25%至3.5%。 鄭子豐指出,市場近期已反映減息預期,料未來3個月美元匯價將窄幅上落,未來6至12個月溫和貶值,匯市中歐元、澳元及日圓或成為美元走弱的主要受惠者,預測日圓未來12個月可達到135日圓兌1美元水平。 他又指,中國今年仍然有可能減息及降準,加上美國減息有助紓緩中美息差,對人民幣中線走勢信心較高,預測未來12個月有機會達到7元人民幣兌1美元水平。 渣打財富管理建議投資者維持多元化基本投資策略,預測現貨黃金價格可能在未來12個月升至每盎司2,150美元的創紀錄水平。全球經濟低迷,需求增長放緩,該行預測WTI原油期貨價格未來12個月將達到75美元,預期閒置產能減少可為油價帶來部分支持。
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