報道指內銀今年近5,700億人幣永續債面臨贖回 銀行將迎資本「大考」
據《中國證券報》報道,日前,中國債券信息網發佈公告顯示,2024年將有中國銀行(03988.HK)、民生銀行(01988.HK)、工商銀行(01398.HK)、農業銀行(01288.HK)等15家商業銀行面臨無固定期限資本債券贖回,合計規模近5,700億人民幣(下同)。這也是商業銀行自2019年發行永續債以來,首度贖回該類債券。作爲國內首家發行永續債的商業銀行,中行已發佈相關公告,將於1月29日全額贖回400億元永續債。
業內人士認爲,除了面對「二永債」(二級資本債及永續債統稱)的贖回壓力外,2024年商業銀行還將面臨資本新規的考驗。資本補充需求或進一步上升,預計「二永債」總發行量或將超1.7萬億元。
業內分析人士稱,永續債並非「真永續」,發行人在滿足贖回條件後通常會進行贖回,若是不贖回,不僅需要承擔五年後基準利率的不確定性帶來的融資成本上升風險,也會由此產生部分負面影響。據瞭解,商業銀行資本補充主要有內源性、外源性兩大渠道。
興業證券固收研究團隊認爲,未來銀行「二永債」放量依然是大趨勢。綜合考慮過去幾年銀行「二永債」的淨供給情況、2024年的到期壓力和進一步補充資本的需要,預計2024年銀行永續債的淨供給或在2,000億元上下,考慮到期等額續作,永續債總發行量或將在7,700億元上下;此外,二級資本債總發行量或將在9,500億元上下。(wl/cy)
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