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大行評級|瑞銀:上調農業銀行目標價至3.45港元 評級上調至“買入”
瑞銀髮布研究報吿稱,儘管由於淨利息收益率對整個行業造成壓力,將農業銀行明年盈利增長預測從5.2%下調至2.7%,但仍然預計農行2024年盈利增長將跑贏同業。其強勁的貸款增長得益於其在農村和縣域銀行業的競爭優勢、充足的撥備緩衝的動力。該行將其H股目標價從3.1港元上調至3.45港元,評級由“中性”升至“買入”。報吿中稱,農行的2024年預期市淨率(P/BV)為0.38倍,比0.58倍的10年平均值低約1SD,該行認為估值很大程度上考慮了市場對農行縣域資產品質風險的擔憂。資產品質似乎可控,截至2023年上半年,農行房地產行業的不良貸款率為5.79%,似乎高於四大銀行的平均值。然而,農行的房地產貸款僅佔2023年上半年貸款總額的4.1%,該行認為這一比例在可控範圍內,並注意到農行是大型銀行中撥備覆蓋率最高的銀行之一,今年第三季為304%,而六大巨頭的平均值為254%。
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