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《大行報告》大和料內地明年消費動力疲弱 市場預期非常低 調整內需股目標價
大和發表研究報告指,2024年即將到來,過去一年投資者憧憬被壓抑的需求將驅動中國在疫情後強勁復甦,然而宏觀經濟疲軟令市場購買力下降,預期疲弱的消費動力仍然會持續至明年,市場預期因此亦降至非常低。 該行指出,考慮到持續的盈利預測下調、相對較高的基數,以及明年即將舉行的三中全會及兩會等多項中央會議,將帶來不確定性,因此對明年首季維持審慎看法,預測明年中國零售額增長將重回2008 年以來的長期減慢趨勢,即按年增長約6%。 消費情緒疲軟的情況下,大和首選的消費行業為酒店、OEM、運動服裝、啤酒及乳製品,對包裝紙、家電、餐館和白酒保持中性立場,並對餐飲業(F&B)及衛生紙行業前景持審慎態度。在十大精選股票中,大和看好亞朵集團(ATAT.US)、安踏體育(02020.HK)、蒙牛乳業(02319.HK)、H&H國際(01112.HK)、貴州茅台(600519.SH)、華潤啤酒(00291.HK)、海爾智家(06690.HK)、申洲國際(02313.HK)、裕元集團(00551.HK)及海底撈(06862.HK),全數給予「買入」評級,並調整內需股目標價(詳見另表)。 大和同時提醒,內地房地產市場若進一步惡化,將進一步加劇消費者憂慮,導致真正的消費降級。
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