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郭思治:大市明顯反彈並似欲上試17,038點
香港股票分析師協會副主席郭思治稱,大市即將步入12月份之下旬,故整個大市會漸受即月期指轉倉及結算等相關活動所主導,而直到執筆一刻止計,本月大市之形態仍暫屬先高而後低,恆指是由1日之高位17,038點跌至11日之低位15,972點,即月內之波幅暫為1,066點,由於一個月之高低位是不該同時出現於7個交易日之內,加上1,066點之波幅亦未必能滿足月內之所需,故在本月餘下之交易日,理論上該有更大之波幅點出現,從而滿足月內對波幅之需求,同時亦可拉闊月內高低位之距離以符合慣性之需求。 值得留意的是,由本周起計,本月剩下之交易日只得8日,下周三(27日)是即月期指轉倉高峰日,而下周四(28日)則為即月期指結算日,到下周五當為即月場外衍生工具結算日,故踏進本周後,估計好淡之爭持會越來越明顯,由於年結在即,估計一眾傳統基金該會有若干粉飾部署,加上維穩之買盤可能會稍見主動,故大市該有機會作進一步之抽升,事實上,個別股份在買盤主動下已創年內新高,如聯想(00992.HK),瑞聲(02018.HK)及小米-W(01810.HK)等,估計情況仍會持續,即所謂買股不買市,當然,個別恆指成份股之表現亦一直優於大市,如匯控(00005.HK)一直穩企於60元左近,另中移動(00941.HK)亦一直穩守在62元左近,但由於騰訊(00700.HK),阿里-SW(09988.HK)及美團-W(03690.HK)等主要恆指成份股仍反覆偏軟,故影響所及,大市之走勢當會受拖累。 (筆者為證監會持牌人)~
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