中國銀行研究報告 : 預計內地明年經濟增長5%左右 房地產投資降幅或收窄
中國銀行(03988.HK)研究院《2024年經濟金融展望報告》指出,今年中國經濟逐步向常態化運行轉變,服務業和消費快速增長,新產業新動能領域繼續快速成長,成為拉動經濟增長的重要支撐;預計第四季中國國內生產總值(GDP)增長5.6%左右,全年增長5.3%左右。
展望2024年,外部環境或有所改善,穩增長政策效果將繼續顯現,國內需求有望持續修復。消費有望進一步恢復,基建和製造業投資有望較快增長,房地產投資降幅或小幅收窄。中國經濟將向潛在增速水平回歸,預計2024年增長5%左右。
報告認為,今年銀行業積極調整業務,尋找盈利增長點,持續提升資本充足水平,部分經濟體銀行業資產質量面臨下行壓力;中國經濟持續恢復,財政貨幣政策合理把握節奏和力度,銀行業穩健經營和高質量服務實體經濟能力持續提升。明年全球經濟增速或進一步放緩,銀行業經營壓力可能更加明顯;中國銀行業將持續加大對實體經濟支持力度,重視風險管理,夯實資本基礎。
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