花旗料港明年經濟增長3% 市場情緒仍將謹慎
花旗銀行預測,本港今年經濟增長3.3%,明年增長放緩至3%。該行指,明年香港市場情緒可能會維持謹慎,直至出現更多信號顯示內地經濟復甦勢頭具可持續性。
花旗指,香港的可持續經濟復甦仍面臨短期、中期和長期障礙。短期而言,旅遊業和服務業需要盡快適應新常態下的遊客和本地消費。雖然政府進一步放寬樓市措施,但房地產市場資產價格調整可能會在明年的大部分時間持續。中期而言,花旗重申政府有必要對財政收入和支出進行全面審視,並建設引入海陸離境稅,從而提供財政緩衝。長遠而言,香港作為超級連繫人的角色上,決策者及商界仍需採取大量快速行動,加強與其他粵港澳大灣區城市的連繫。
另外,息口方面,該行估計加息周期已到尾聲,預料美國聯儲局2024年下半年開始減息,第三、四季各減50點子。至於2025年料減息150個基點。
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