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光大證券國際:明年恆指有望上試21,000點水平 偏好前沿經濟、外圍復甦及電子消費等板塊
阿思達克 12-08 10:10
光大證券國際證券策略師伍禮賢預期,明年港股危與機並存,對全年市場整體表現審慎樂觀,恆指明年最高有機會上試21,000點水平,並認為港股明年將繼續受到外圍息率及內地經濟表現等兩大因素左右,而港股自身的估值亦對未來指數運行產生較大影響。 伍禮賢表示,外圍利率環境改善,加上美國硬著陸風險下降,料將利好明年全球股市表現。對港股而言,除受惠債息長遠向下趨勢外,內地經濟復甦進度亦主導未來市況發展。目前各項內地數據反映經濟正處於逐步觸底階段,未來在政策持續支持下,內需消費及工業領域或具較強的向上彈力。此外,由於內房市場仍面對較大壓力,料對固定資產投資領域繼續帶來挑戰。 他表示,過去市場波動時,部分行業出現較明顯的逆周期表現,預期未來這些行業在內地經濟復甦時仍有較大機會表現增長動力;外圍利率回落亦使部分板塊在估值方面受惠,明年重點留意前沿經濟、外圍復甦、電子消費及工業生產四大板塊。(ca/cy) ~
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