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建銀國際:明年恆指目標區間16,500至20,500點 料港股走勢前低後高
建銀國際證券研究部董事總經理及首席策略師趙文利表示,今年恆指已幾乎見底,預計明年恆指波動介乎16,500點至20,500點區間,預料港股走勢呈W型,前低後高,明年有望見到本輪熊市的末端,並將會進入新周期初始階段。另外,他預料,國企指數波動區間介乎5,500點至7,000點,科技指數介乎3,600點至4,800點。 他認為,美國經濟表現超出預期,受惠疫情滯後效應,但將於明年走弱,又指美國經濟周期或處於擴張階段的尾聲,明年或有機會陷入衰退。他認為,聯儲局過度收緊貨幣政策引起反回購危機、錢荒等風險不大,若未來縮表步伐不變和經濟衰退的不穩定下,明年流動性風險仍需關注。 他指,偏好消費電子、生物醫藥、互聯網、新能源汽車等投資板塊,其中在生物科技股方面,首選藥明康德(02359.HK)及信達生物(01801.HK)。(ca/k) ~
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