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惠譽:中國鋼鐵和水泥行業與房地產需求脫鉤 基本面穩定
評級機構惠譽預計,得益於製造業和基礎設施行業保持穩定的擴張速度,中國鋼鐵和水泥市場2024年的綜合基本面將保持中性。 惠譽預計,由於房地產相關產品的需求進一步減少,鋼鐵行業將採取審慎態度開展生產,疊加高利潤率產品的產量佔比提高,鋼鐵行業的利潤率將有所改善。然而,企業為適應需求變化和實現脫碳目標而進行技術升級,所需的資本支出增加將抵銷這一改善。 惠譽預計,水泥行業的利潤率將基本保持穩定並略有改善;中國前五大水泥生產商的毛利潤總額與上一年同期相比的降幅從2023年第一季度和第二季度的45%和14%降至第三季度的3%。此外惠譽預計,在平均售價大幅提高之前,規模較小、效率較低的水泥生產將繼續關停,因為該等水泥生產商正在遭受經營損失。 惠譽預計,在環保法規趨嚴、低效小型鋼鐵和水泥企業被淘汰的背景下,鋼鐵和水泥行業將繼續推進行業整合。龍頭水泥企業或於市場低谷之際通過收購來獲取市場份額。
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