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《大行報告》華泰證券料小米(01810.HK)本季手機出貨量按季持平 平均售價有所上漲
華泰證券發表報告表示,小米-W(01810.HK)第三季業績超預期,毛利率創下自上市來的單季歷史新高,決定上調對小米2023年至2025年非GAAP口徑淨利潤預測各12%、10%及4%,分別至166億、141億及159億人民幣。 考慮到小米市佔率的提升以及小米14系列的大賣,該行上調小米2025年智能手機出貨量預測5%,並上調小米2023年ASP預測8%,並由此上調小米2023年及2025年銷量預測各8%及5%。鑒於今年第三季的高毛利率,以及該行認為供應鏈部分公司的調整以及更高營運效率,有望驅動小米智能手機長期毛利率中樞上行。 華泰證券指,維持小米目標價20元(包含汽車業務每股3港元的估值)以及「買入」投資評級。該行指小米今年第三季3智能手機業務毛利率為16.6%(按季上漲3.3個百分點),主因原料成本降低、庫存減值衝回以及收入結構的優化。展望今年第四季,因小米14系列的大賣,預計季度出貨量將按季基本持平,而平均售價(ASP)將按季有所上漲。該行認為,由於未來幾個季度原材料成本的上升,手機毛利率或進入下行區間。不過得益於部分供應鏈公司的變 化和更高效的營運,認為手機業務長期毛利率中樞較以往將有所提升。(wl/cy) ~
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