花旗分析員:OPEC+成員國最有可能延長目前產量配額
花旗集團大宗商品分析師週一(27日)表示,油組及其盟友(OPEC+)很可能同意在週四舉行會議時將石油減產延長至第一季度,並可能進行一些細微的調整。
該銀行預計明年非油組石油產量將增加,並表示仍相信布蘭特原油價格將在未來6個月至一年內降至每桶72美元左右。
花旗表示,儘管OPEC+上週決定將會議推遲四天,據報道是由於內部分歧,增加出現悲觀結果的可能性,但發生這種情況的可能性不超過10%至20%。
該銀行的基本情境假設目前的生產限額將延長,有60%至70%的可能性,而進一步減產的可能性仍約爲20%。
花旗亦表示,預計多個主要交易中心的原油庫存將大幅增加。分析師計算,11月迄今爲止,原油庫存增加了超過4,800萬桶,第四季迄今增加了近7,000萬桶。
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