高盛:料OPEC減產下明年油價可望在80美元獲支持
高盛表示,雖然本週原油價格大幅下跌及墮入熊市,但投資者仍可以指望石油輸出國組織(OPEC)在2024年維持大宗商品價格的底線。
高盛大宗商品分析師Daan Struyven在給客戶的報告中表示,相信OPEC將利用其定價能力,確保布蘭特原油價格在80美元至100美元的範圍內,OPEC認沽期權的下限爲80美元,閒置產能的上限爲100美元。
布油和紐油今年均下跌超過8%,高盛歸咎於非核心OPEC供應遠強於預期,但預期該些因素或將消失,指非核心供應成長將從今年每日250萬桶放緩至2024年的150萬桶,尤其是在美國。
高盛認爲布油價格不太可能持續跌破每桶80美元,其中一個原因是OPEC的支持,同時閒置產能增加意味OPEC支持的強度不如一年前,如果布油持續跌穿80美元,OPEC+可能會更緩慢地恢復產量。同時,全球經濟軟着陸,核心通脹將回到目標水平,而不會對勞動市場或石油需求造成太大損害。
但高盛指出,明年油價持續上漲至每桶100美元以上的可能性不大,部分原因是閒置產能充足以及中國削減原油庫存。
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