瑞銀料明年本港樓價再跌一成 負資產個案續升
瑞銀投資銀行香港/中國房地產研究主管林鎮鴻預計,今年本港樓價將會持平或下跌最多5%,並於明年再跌10%;又看淡甲級寫字樓前景,預計今明兩年的租金將分別按年下降3至5%。
瑞銀投資銀行香港房地產分析師梁展嘉指出,雖然本港的住屋租金上升,但仍不足以彌補按揭利率的升幅。不過,他認為一旦美國減息多於預期,樓市仍有機會反彈,強調樓價走勢是受到利率影響。
他預期,本港負資產個案會繼續上升,因為過去很多人以高成數按揭上會,故相信目前數字尚未見頂。
他又認為,政府提出對專才買樓「先免後徵」對樓市有較大作用,但仍有撤辣空間,因為買樓投資需求較低,預計樓價仍會繼續下跌。
另外,他預計本港需時4年消化房屋庫存,認為是一個高水平。他指,本港跟隨美國加息,加上宏觀環境不理想,令買樓意欲下降,而發展商手頭緊,亦會傾向將樓盤讓利銷售。
瑞銀投資銀行香港策略師陳志立提到,雖然美國聯邦退休基金調整旗下國際基金的基準指數,繼中國後亦將香港剔除在外,但認為政策對香港影響不大。
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