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瑞銀預測明年香港GDP增長放緩至2.5% 料美國明年3月起降息
阿思達克 11-16 12:12
瑞銀亞洲經濟研究部亞洲和中國經濟學家鄧維慎表示,對明年香港經濟增長預測較為保守。香港經濟在2019年至2022年期間受到社會運動及疫情的衝擊,隨著與疫情相關的檢疫限制取消,今年經濟成功復甦。上半年GDP增長2.2%,今年首八個月零售額增長19%。他預計今年經濟將增3.6%,進一步正常化及政府的支持性政策應有助於經濟在未來幾個季度進一步擴張。然而,考慮到重大的週期性挑戰,預計明年增長將放緩至2.5%。 他又預期,美國經濟將於第二至第三季衰退,GDP下滑至2.1%,並預計美國高利率可能會在明年首季持續一段時間,並在3月減息25基點,而由於預期美國經濟衰退,美聯儲將持續降息50基點,全年料累降275基點。 瑞銀投資銀行香港策略師陳志立指,瑞銀對明年MSCI香港指數目標為9,500點,而恆指目標為20,600點。 他對明年上半年年頭的投資前景較保守,看好香港基建及澳門博彩業,另看淡香港地產及銀行業。不過,他強調,一旦開始減息,香港地產行業會最受影響。
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