大摩:明年美股及美債將跑贏新興市場
大摩(MS.US)預計明年美國股票及債券的表現將優於新興市場,相信美企盈利增長將在明年初見底後反彈,相較於其他地區,美國經濟增長可能會保持強勁,而新興市場的增長或會令人失望。
大摩建議採用「槓鈴策略」,即投資高風險的周期性股份以及低風險的防守性股份,預計標普500指數到明年底將達到4,500點。大摩又稱,預計聯儲局會在明年6月減息,相信屆時美國債券可能較一年前更具吸引力,隨著市場定價進入減息周期,到明年債息或會回落,當中10年期美債孳息率會低見3.95厘。
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