大摩料聯儲局明年6月開始大幅減息300個點子 惟高盛料僅減息175個點子
大摩預計,隨著通脹降溫,聯儲局將在未來兩年內大幅減息,但高盛認為減息幅度會較小,兼且會將較後的時間才會開始減息周期。
大摩預計,聯儲局將從明年6月開始減息,並會在9月以及第四季的每次議息會議上減息,每次減息幅度為四分一厘,預計到2025年底利率將降至2.375厘,合共減息300個點子。高盛則預計在明年第四季首次減息四分一厘,然後到2026年中每季減息一次,總共減息175個點子,最終利率將降至3.5厘至3.75厘。
大摩對美國經濟的表現較高盛悲觀,預計2025年失業率為4.3%,核心通脹及實質經濟增長分別為2.1%及1.4%,認為美國經濟疲弱需要採取更大幅度的寬鬆政策,但相信經濟不會陷入衰退。至於高盛方面,預計通脹及經濟增長分別為2.2%及1.9%,失業率僅為3.6%。
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