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《即日市評》內地製造業PMI再陷收縮 恆指跌 科網股造淡
內地10月官方製造業PMI跌至49.5遜預期,再度陷入收縮水平,恆指今日向下。市場繼續關注聯儲局未來息口走向,美股道指及納指隔晚各升1.6%及1.2%;執筆之時,美國10年期債券孳息率跌至4.833厘,日本央行維持短期利率目標在負0.1厘不變,進一步放寬YCC(孳息率曲線控制)政策,會以1厘上限作為進行YCC的參考,較原有0.5厘的參考上限再度提升,美匯指數升至106.12,道指期貨最新升72點或0.22%,納指期貨最新跌0.09%。上證綜指全日跌2點或0.09%收3,018點,深證成指跌0.65%,而滬深兩市成交額共9,183億人民幣。 恆指低開68點後跌幅擴大,曾跌364點一度低見17,042點,全日跌293點或1.7%,收17,112點;國指跌98點或1.7%,收5,861點;恆生科技指數跌95點或2.5%,收3,759點。大市全日成交總額846.52億元,滬、深港通南下交易淨流入18.65億及16.62億元人民幣。匯控(00005.HK)季績遜預期,市場關注成本指引上調,全日股價跌1.8%報56.15元。 恆指10月累跌697點或3.9%(連跌三個月及累跌2,966點或14.8%)、國指10月累跌286點或4.7%、恆生科指10月累跌161點或4.1%。美國長年期國債息升近5厘,投資者憂美息或更長處於高企,投資者亦關注以巴局勢緊張、「國家隊」中央匯金於本月增持四大國有商銀A股消息,其後內地亦宣布將增發1萬億人民幣國債支持災後重建等工作。 【匯控股價弱 科網股造淡】 科網股造淡,騰訊(00700.HK)全日股價跌近2.1%收289.2元,阿里巴巴(09988.HK)及美團(03690.HK)股價各下滑近2.2%及3%。手機部件股比亞迪電子(00285.HK)股價挫10.2%,同業舜宇(02382.HK)跌5.4%。 摩根士丹利發表報告指出,內地10月份官方製造業採購經理指數(PMI)意外再次低於50盛衰分界線,顯示推動再通脹之路存挑戰及緩慢。該行維持對內地經濟增長與通脹均表現乏力的看法,預期明年國內生產總值(GDP)達4.2%,相對於2022至2023年平均水平為4%;料今年通脹負0.8%,明年反彈至0.6%,且整個通脹之路或需時2至3年才能實現。另認為當局除了1萬億元人民幣的預算擴張外,還須有更多的刺激和改革措施。 【跌股一千隻 內銀走個別】 港股今日市寬轉弱,主板股票的升跌比率為12比28(上日22為比17),下跌股份1,184隻(跌幅2.9%),恆指成份股今日7隻股份上升,下跌股份71隻,升跌比率為9比89(上日為64比30);大市今日錄沽空151.75億元,佔可沽空股份成交額728.25億元的20.837%(上日18.518%)。 內銀股走個別,工行(01398.HK)升0.5%收3.76元,建行(00939.HK)跌近0.9%,中行(03988.HK)升近0.4%。摩根士丹利發表報告,內銀股公布今年第三季業績,收入普遍低於預期,市場關注淨息差及手續費收入的壓力,內銀撥備前利潤(PPOP)面臨更大的壓力。該行指基於信貸成本降低,基本支持內銀盈利保持穩定,雖然相關增長轉弱。該行指中行(03988.HK)及民生銀行(01988.HK) 上季核心營運趨勢較同業鞏固。 該行指,內銀股因淨息差收窄及手續費較低令收入承壓,不少內銀亦受到投資收入較低所影響。大摩指其所研究覆蓋的內銀股今年第三季撥備前利潤(PPOP)平均按年下跌7%,對比今年上半年跌2%,並指內銀在收入下滑但營運開支上升下,令成本收入比率平均上升2%。該行指內銀股之中,僅中行、民生銀行及成都銀行(601838.SH)上季撥備前利潤錄得按年正增長。
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