《季績前瞻》大摩料匯控(00005.HK)上季列賬基準稅前利潤近83億美元 估公布回購股份20億美元
匯豐控股(00005.HK)將於下周一(30日)公布今年第三季度業績,市場憧憬可受惠美國、英國基準利率、本港銀行同業拆息上升,但金融市場務按季轉弱,摩根士丹利及中金分別料匯控2023年第三季列賬基準除稅前利潤82.98億美元及87.51億美元。而摩根士丹利及中金均料匯控2023年第三季每股季度派息0.1美元。當中大摩預計匯控將公布額外回購20億美元股份。市場將關注集團管理層給予最新營運、派息及股份回購指引,並關注涉及部份內地房企信貸風險敞口及撥備情況。
因匯控今年採用國際財務報告準則17「保險合約」(IFRS 17)的會計安排,將令去年同期基數重列,基於各券商對重列去年同期基數預測不盡相同,本文不提供綜合券商按年變幅預測
【受益利率高企 聚焦股份回購】
摩根士丹利料匯控第三季列賬基準除稅前利潤82.98億美元,(按該行重列去年第三季除稅前利潤31.47億美元計按年升1.64倍),按季跌5.4%,料經調整除稅前利潤82.98億美元按年升26%(按季跌8%),料上季淨利息收入89.61億美元按年升4%,撥備12.63億美元按年升26%(按季跌2%),料每股派季度股息10美仙。該行料匯控截至9月底止普通股權一級資本比率維持於14.7%。該行料有關銀行的信貸質素穩定,資本回報料仍為關注重點。
中金預計匯控第三季列賬基準除稅前利潤87.51億美元,按季微跌0.2%,估計營業收入167.56億美元按季升0.3%,料上季淨利息收入93.82億美元按年升17%,基於加息周期接近尾聲,預計淨利息收入或在第三季見頂,估計上季淨息差為1.7%(較今年第二季收窄2個基點)。該行估匯控上季非利息收入料為73.73億元人民幣,受高利率影響股市及風險胃納影響,手績費表現環比料無明顯改善,交易業務按季及按年均有所下行。中金亦預計,匯控季度撥備達10.7億美元,其中部分房企敞口或存在評級下調風險,預計內地地產相關撥備或進一步增加。該行考慮到高息環境下銀行盈利能力較長且規模增長緩慢,料可保持較強資本補充能力,支持進一步股份回購。
星展早前發表報告,基於預期美聯儲保持更高息更長時間,料匯控淨息差下半年見頂。但高利率或影響貸款需求,並在今年下半年至明年為資產質素構成壓力。該行料匯控第三季在內地商業地產有更多不確定性,預期匯控在高息環境下受惠有限。該行亦因應美聯儲、英倫銀行及本港銀行同業拆息於第三季上升,料匯控今年淨息差預測達1.72厘。
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摩根士丹利及中金分別料匯控2023年第三季列賬基準除稅前利潤82.98億美元及87.51億美元,較2023年第二季列賬基準除稅前利潤87.71億美元,按季各跌5.4%及0.2%。
券商│2023年第三季列賬基準除稅前利潤預測│按季變幅
中金│87.51億美元│-0.2%
大摩│82.98億美元│-5.4%
按匯控2023年第二季列賬基準除稅前利潤87.71億美元計
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摩根士丹利及中金均料匯控2023年第三季每股季度派息0.1美元。
券商│2023年第三季每股季度派息預測
中金│0.1美元
大摩│0.1美元
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