《大行報告》高盛削李寧(02331.HK)目標價至41元 上季零售銷售遜預期
高盛發表報告指,李寧(02331.HK)第三季零售流水錄得按年中單位數增長,低過該行預期的高單位數增長。由於消費市道波動、批發疲弱、經銷商串貨影響銷售及折扣,管理層計劃第四季開始減低批發出貨,清理渠道庫存,預期全年銷售增長低於雙位數。第四季及雙11對於清理庫存有幫助,但銷售折扣增加,對毛利率及經營利潤率復甦造成壓力。
該行認為,在宏觀及微觀層面上,李寧短期前景具有挑戰;不過,該行對管理層態度趨務實,並聚焦於增長質量,而非單純重視收入增長感鼓舞。高盛稱,李寧對存貨作出更積極的管理,雖會經歷短期陣痛,但長遠將會得益,憧憬其2024至2026年收入有低雙位數增長,毛利率在渠道庫存正常化後料逐漸復甦。
高盛削李寧2023至2026年盈測介乎17%至20%,反映公司更積極清理庫存及管理串貨問題,或拖累今年盈利,下調今年盈利增長預測由原先15%降至8%,淨利潤率預測則由15%降至13%。目標價相應由58元下調至41元,維持「買入」評級,以反映公司長期增長前景、品牌領導地位、現金流強勁及股東回報提升。
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