布少明:施政報告減辣超預期 料即時刺激住宅交投回升
政府今日發表《施政報告2023》,落實多項減辣措施。美聯物業住宅部行政總裁(港澳)布少明表示,今次的減辣幅度更超市場預期,當中額外印花稅禁售期由3年縮短至2年,調整屬意外之喜,相信有助增加二手供應,助市民置業。而將外地買家辣稅由30%減至15%(BSD 7.5%及新住宅印花稅7.5%),合資格專才來港置業的辣稅改為「先免後徵」;新住宅印花稅亦減半至7.5%。相信後兩項減辣措施,未計投資需要,已經可以釋放多達23萬個潛在的置業剛需,料即時刺激住宅交投回升,樓價更大有機會止跌回穩,出現「價穩量升」情況,預測第四季一手成交有望按季急升逾4成至3,000宗;二手交投按季增加則逾2成至8,300宗。
今次樓市減辣中,外地買家辣稅由30%減至15%,而當中合資格專才來港置業的辣稅改為「先免後徵」,料吸引現於香港工作而又未成為香港永久居民的人才入市,以2017年至2023年9月的近7年間,透過7項入境政策/計劃獲批來港的人數合共達39.7萬人,意味著上述人士成為潛在置業需求,若當中2成入市,潛在置業剛需已約8萬。
有關措施吸引現於香港工作而又未成為香港永久居民的人才入市,特別是內地人士。本港住宅物業一向深受內地人士歡迎,近年更有不少「新香港人」支持,內地買家佔比高企。根據美聯物業房地產數據及研究中心綜合土地註冊處資料,按已知買家姓名作分析,今年第二季內地買家佔個人買家於香港樓市一二手住宅註冊量佔約13.6%,創約11年半新高。相信在新措施下,加上「新香港人」支持,料內地買家比率將超越2011年第四季14.2%,達至紀錄新高。
最後額外印花稅禁售期縮短至2年,在目前經濟尚未完全復常下,相信有助急需資金的人士賣樓週轉,助釋放二手供應。由於目前息口仍然高企,相信短期上升的需求足可被增加的新盤及二手供應填補,對樓價起穩定的作用,令第四季本港樓價有望止跌回穩。
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