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《大行報告》中信証券:期待內房政策繼續加碼 料年末有望迎來銷售底部
中信証券發表內房行業報告,就國家統計局月度公布今年首九個月商品房銷售面積按年下降7.5%,降幅擴大0.4個百分點;銷售額按年下降4.6%,降幅擴大1.4個百分點。9月單月商品房銷售面積按年下降10.1%,降幅收窄2.1百分點; 銷售金額按年下降13.6%,降幅收窄2.8百分點。 該行認為國統局9月數據略顯滯後,該行預計10月數據將充分反映9月以來需求側政策發力的效果。但不可否認的是,企業投資熱情不斷下降,新開工和開發投資增速還有明顯下行壓力。該行預計,年末市場有望迎來銷售的底部,隨後政策的重心可能從穩房價轉為穩投資。城中村改造和保障性住房建設政策仍然值得緊密關注。 中信証券預計內房政策將繼續加碼,穩住預期之後,政策重心可能轉向穩投資。該行認為,核心城市繼續放開限購,按揭貸款利率下限的進一步打開,按揭貸款首付比例要求的下調,普通住宅認定標準的調整等各類政策的出台,仍將在未來一段時間起到助力需求的作用。 總體而言,該行認為內房產業鏈中的拿地方面調整已經較為充分,銷售即將見底,但新開工面積仍趨於下行,而竣工面積則在未來面臨較大幅度下行壓力,開發投資的增速預期也難言樂觀。對房地產產業鏈來說,部分開發企業的競爭環境明顯好轉。物業管理行業經營底盤也較為穩健。中信証券建議重點關注華潤置地(01109.HK)、招商蛇口(001979.SZ)、上海臨港(600848.SH)及華發股份(600325.SH)、天健集團(000090.SZ)及華潤萬象生活(01209.HK)、萬物雲(02602.HK)、保利物業(06049.HK),招商積餘(001914.SZ) 等物業管理公司。
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