《季績前瞻》券商料港交所(00388.HK)第三季多賺逾26% 聚焦營運指引(更新)
港交所(00388.HK)將於本周五(20日)公布今年第三季業績,雖然港股季內日均成交額僅逾980億元,但受惠於利率環境高企,令投資收益淨額按年大幅上升,本網綜合5間券商預期港交所2023年第三季純利介乎27.57億元至29.42億元,較2022年同期22.63億元,按年上升21.8%至30%,中位數28.59億元按年升26.3%;並較2023年第二季純利29.04億元按季跌5.3%至按年升1.3%。
綜合4間券商預期港交所2023年第三季收入及其他收益介乎48.66億元至51.01億元,較2022年同期43.18億元,按年上升12.7%至18.1%;中位數50.42億元按年升16.8%。綜合4間券商預期港交所2023年第三季投資收益淨額介乎10.25億元至11.43億元,較2022年同期3.34億元,按年上升2.07倍至2.42倍;中位數10.95億元按年升2.28倍。投資者將關注港府促進港股流動性提升方案、港交所管理層最新營運及改革指引。
【受惠投資收益 聚焦營運指引】
中金料港交所今年第三季純利27.57億元,按年升21.8%及按季跌5.1%,估計第三季收入錄48.7億元按年升13%(按季跌3%),剔除投資收益後主營業務收入錄38.4億元按年跌2%(按季持平)。該行指現貨於第三季度港股指數及換手率表現低迷、ADT按年升1%(按季跌4%)至984億港元,其中南下ADT按年升32%(按季跌4%)至290億港元(佔港股14.7%),北上ADT按年升10%(按季跌13%);第二是衍生品:股指衍生品交易活躍、帶動股指期貨及期權ADV按年升22%(按季升4%)至74.5萬張,其中恆生科技指數衍生品交易量持續高增、按年升81%(按季升9%)至12.1萬張、佔比按年升5.3個百分點至16.2%;第三是商品LME日均成交量按年升17%(按季跌5%)至57.9萬張、維持較高水平;第四是上市,第三季完成IPO共13家、融資額66億港元(按年跌88%/按季跌41%)。
高盛估計港交所今年第三季每股盈利將按年下滑5%至2.18元(按年則升22%),按季下滑相信是港股成交量疲軟導致的,按年增長則得益於投資收入的增加。該行料港交所第三季純利按年升22%。野村料港交所第三季純利9.42億元按年升30%,料季內投資收益淨額錄錄11.39億元(按年大升2.4倍及按季大致持平)。
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本網綜合5間券商預期港交所2023年第三季純利介乎27.57億元至29.42億元,較2022年同期22.63億元,按年上升21.8%至30%,中位數28.59億元按年升26.3%;並較2023年第二季純利29.04億元按季跌5.3%至按年升1.3%;
券商│2023年第三季純利預測(港元)│按年變幅
野村│29.42億元│+30%
摩根士丹利│29.34億元│+29.7%
摩根大通│28.59億元│+26.3%
高盛│27.6億元│+22%
中金│27.57億元│+21.8%
按港交所2022年第三季純利22.63億元計
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綜合4間券商預期港交所2023年第三季收入及其他收益介乎48.66億元至51.01億元,較2022年同期43.18億元,按年上升12.7%至18.1%;中位數50.42億元按年升16.8%。
券商│2023年第三季收入及其他收益預測(港元)│按年變幅
摩根士丹利│51.01億元│+18.1%
野村│50.53億元│+17.02%
摩根大通│50.3億元│+16.5%
中金│48.66億元│+12.7%
按港交所2022年第三季收入及其他收益43.18億元計
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綜合4間券商預期港交所2023年第三季投資收益淨額介乎10.25億元至11.43億元,較2022年同期3.34億元,按年上升2.07倍至2.42倍;中位數10.95億元按年升2.28倍。
券商│2023年第三季投資收益淨額預測(港元)│按年變幅
摩根士丹利│11.43億元│+2.42倍
野村│11.39億元│+2.41倍
摩根大通│10.51億元│+2.15倍
中金│10.25億元│+2.07倍
按港交所2022年第三季投資收益淨額3.34億元計
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