《大行報告》中金料騰訊(00700.HK)第三季非國際財務準則淨利潤按年升31% 視頻號勢頭良好
中金發表研究報告指出,預測騰訊(00700.HK)第三季收入按年增長10%至1,541億元人民幣,非國際會計準測(Non-IFRS)淨利潤按年增長31%至421億元人民幣,並認為公司視頻號勢頭良好,期待後續新遊助力。
該行指出,第三季遊戲行業進入暑期,而《無畏契約》、《命運方舟》及《冒險島》等遊戲如期而至,該行料騰訊季內國內遊戲收入按年增速為5%,但後續仍需要更加優質的作品驅動遊戲業務加速才能進一步增強市場信心,建議關注《元夢之星》等新遊表現。而小程序遊戲繼續發揮微信平台優勢,為SNS收入貢獻增量。海外遊戲方面,去年下半年因優質產品上線使得今年公司獲得較高的增長基數,該行預計騰訊第三季海外遊戲按年增速將放緩至13%。
此外,該行預計騰訊第三季廣告收入將按年增長22%。其中視頻號廣告仍為明確的重要增量,廣告加載率仍有提升空間,但由於視頻號去年三季開始商業化,基數效應將逐漸消化。展望未來,該行認為其本身的廣告增長疊加視頻號電商發展或可進一步打開廣告收入空間。至於騰訊在電商等行業客戶的預算還在提升,此前騰訊與阿里一直在深化廣告領域的合作,微信和淘寶廣告流量的直連有望實現互利共贏;隨著混元助手大模型的發布,AI有望進一步融合進騰訊廣告業務,實現效率提升。
該行基本維持今明兩年騰訊的收入預期不變,認為其業務槓桿仍在持續發揮作用,因此分別上調今明兩年公司Non-IFRS淨利潤6%和5%,至1,527億和1,798億元人民幣。該行維持對其目標價475元及「跑贏行業」評級不變。
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