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瑞銀:仍對中資銀行持中性看法 目前低估值已基本反映下行風險
阿思達克 10-16 14:55
瑞銀大中華金融股票研究主管May Yan表示,中資銀行將於10月下旬發布第三季業績,該行預計第三季基本面無重大改善,但未來壓力將加大,因為「存量房貸再融資」和銀保手續費下調的影響將從9月底開始展現。對於國有銀行/主要股份行,該行預計第三季兩者營收將按年增長1.4%及跌2.2%,與第二季相似(升0.8%及跌2.6%)。 期內,Yan料由於中資銀行淨息差按年繼續大幅走低、貸款增長放緩,淨利息收入按年增速可能放緩。該不利影響基本被手續費收入在低基數上的按年小幅正增長以及交易和投資收益改善所抵銷。但由於撥備壓降空間縮小,該行預計國有銀行/主要股份行淨利潤按年增速,將從第二季的4.1%及10.1%,降至第三季的3.3%及7.3%(剔除利潤大幅波動的民生銀行(01988.HK))。 Yan估計,第三季主要股份行的營收和撥備前利潤增速落後,因為零售貸款需求疲軟;貸款去風險;手續費增長乏力。然而,該行仍對中資銀行持中性看法,認為目前的低估值已基本反映下行風險。中央匯金增持四大行顯示出政府支持力度加碼。總體更看好大型國有銀行。
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