景順料內房溢出風險規模不大 重新關注消費及基建相關固收投資機會
景順亞太區固定收益主管黃嘉誠表示,短期內對亞洲投資級別債券取態相對謹慎,認為投資者依然在擔心中國房地產行業的下行風險和潛在溢出風險,過往該行基於內房風險潛在溢出影響而減持水泥等行業,但現時正考慮重新關注消費、基建相關固收投資機會。
他指出,內地當局過去幾年在「房住不炒」及去槓桿的態度上非常明確,投資者應意識到內地樓市結構已發生根本性轉變,預期內房溢出風險規模不大,企業再出現違約及引發系統性風險機率較小,但個別房企的債務重組進展要視乎企業與債務規模而定,預期中國恆大(03333.HK)及碧桂園(02007.HK)等規模較大的房企債務重組則需時。
黃嘉誠指出,由於亞洲投資級別債券收益率與美債存在差距,特別是中國投資級別債券,因此預期今年餘下時間亞洲投資級別債仍會維持波動,市場普遍預期美聯儲今年至明年上半年再加息,估計隨著美息波動性於年底前有所降低,加上有吸引力的利差,應該會在中期為亞洲債券市場提供技術性支持,但吸引性仍遜於環球投資級別債券。
他又指出,印度再生能源、澳門博彩、石油和天然氣企業等所發行的亞洲高息債券具基本面吸引,預期IMF進一步支持亞洲經濟體及債務重組取得進展,部分亞洲前沿高息主權債券前景將有所改善。
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