《大行報告》匯豐研究下調中銀(02388.HK)及東亞(00023.HK)目標價 對香港銀行業正面看法減弱
匯豐研究發表報告指,8月份本港銀行業貸款按年錄4.5%負增長,達到廿年來最低水平,貸款需求可能在更長一段時間內維持疲軟,對香港銀行業正面看法減弱,指出現時港銀尾端風險(Tail Risk)似乎與1998年至2003年的貸款負成長時期相似。
該行指出,雖然香港8月消費者物價指數按年升1.8%,但考慮到香港與內地的密切聯繫,預期借貸人或面對更趨向通縮的經營環境,而貸款需求疲軟情況預期會持續至2025年。
不過匯豐研究亦憧憬,淨利差水平可能保持相對較高,同時由於資本過剩,銀行或提高股息或安排回購,以回饋股東,而來自內地及中東市場的資金流入,亦可能帶動資產管理規模增長保持強勁。
匯豐研究將中銀香港(02388.HK)和東亞銀行(00023.HK)的目標價分別下調至26.2及9.4元,以反映尾端風險增加,導致資產增長放緩、手續費收入增長疲軟、信貸成本上升和股本成本上升風險。考慮到中銀香港潛在的派息比率上調以及東亞銀行的估值不高,該行維持中銀香港的「買入」評級和東亞銀行的「持有」評級不變。
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