《大行報告》花旗下調阿里(09988.HK)目標價至144元 評級「買入」
花旗發表研究報告指,阿里巴巴(09988.HK)截至6月底首財季業績表現好過預期,在7月及8月宏觀與零售數據趨勢疲軟的情況下,現時預測9月底止第二季度客戶管理收入(CMR)將按年增長3%至685億元人民幣,整體收入料按年增長7.5%至2,226億元人民幣。
考慮到集團對用戶參與度及技術創新的持續投入,花旗預測淘寶天貓集團第二財季EBITA將按年增長2%,而合併經調整EBITA料增長17%。展望第三財季,隨著「雙十一」季節性旺季以及與微信加強合作的帶動,花旗預計日活躍用戶的增長正面會推動轉化率,並令CMR的增長超越平台總成交額(GMV)的增長。
花旗將阿里2024財年第二季收入及非通用會計準則下淨利潤預測分別下調4.5%及10.5%,以反映CMR和直接銷售增長放緩,相應地花旗將阿里目標價下調至144元,由於估值不高,維持「買入」評級。
而對於2024至2026財年,花旗將收入預測分別降低2.8%、3.7%及3.8%,非通用會計準則下淨利潤預測分別下調6.5%、7.6%及8.7%。
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