瑞銀汪濤:低基數效應消退 料第三季內地GDP按年增速降至4%
中國商務部即將公布9月和第三季度經濟數據。隨著8月和9月增長動能較7月觸底反彈,瑞銀投資銀行估計第三季度GDP按季增長可能企穩,但低基數效應消退或拖累第三季度GDP按年增速降至4.4%。
瑞銀亞洲經濟研究主管及首席中國經濟學家汪濤估計,9月內地房地產銷售可能仍疲弱,出口跌幅收窄,總體固定資產投資較弱,工業生產大體企穩,社會消費品零售增速從低基數反彈。
汪濤預計,9月增長動能企穩,隨著8月和9月增長動能較7月觸底反彈,估計三季度GDP按季增長可能企穩,目前的基準情景預測是第三季度GDP按年增長4%,該預測面臨的風險偏上行。(ca/w)
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