摩通警告美國經濟將陷衰退 應準備迎接標指或急瀉兩成
摩通(JPM.US)首席市場策略師兼全球研究聯席主管Marko Kolanovic警告,標普500指數有可能會暴跌兩成,因高利率正在爲股市創造一個下行的突破點,認爲持有現金在貨幣市場及短期國債中取得5.5%的回報是目前理想的投資策略。
過去一個月標普500指數下跌超過5%,Kolanovic稱,短期股市仍有可能反彈,很大程度上將取決於未來數個月的經濟數據,但當股市下行的缺口出現時,有可能會急瀉兩成,警告蘋果(AAPL.US)、亞馬遜(AMZN.US)、Meta(META.US)、Alphabet(GOOGL.US)、Nvidia(NVDA.US)、Tesla(TSLA.US)及微軟(MSFT.US)在高利率下實現歷史性增長,但亦是最容易出現崩盤。
他稱,在目前如此高的利率環境下,難以確定美國將如何避免經濟衰退。若最終出現經濟衰退,認爲上述七大科技股將跟隨其他板塊下跌,當中必需消費品及公用事業股亦會受到重創。
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