植耀輝:ADP數據遠遜預期美股反彈 恆指有望跟隨
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,美股隔晚(4日)反彈,ADP數據意外遠遜預期,10年期美債息回落,科技股亦有較佳表現,當中納指上升1.35%,道指及標普500指數則分別上升0.39%及0.8%。本周五(6日)公布之非農數據表現料會對息口去向有更大啟示。
港股昨日則未見太大起色,恆指持續向下尋底,最低曾見17,094點,雖然中段跌幅一度收窄至64點,但尾市又再度反覆偏軟。最終恆指數收報17,195點,下跌135點或0.78%,科指則跌1.7%,收報3,752點。全日成交相當淡靜,只得576億元。多隻成份股再創至少一年新低,當中包括煤氣(00003.HK)、恆安(01044.HK)及港鐵(00066.HK)等,京東-SW(09618.HK)更續創香港上市後新低。本地地產股則反彈,有指施政報告將有刺激樓市措施,支持相關股份反彈。值得一提的是友邦(01299.HK),股價連續第二個交易日逆市造好,收報65.4元,升近1.6%。
由於市場氣氛未見改善,加上外圍市況動盪,預期對港股依然會構成壓力。由於隔晚美股反彈,今日(5日)港股亦有望跟隨,惟一旦再有不利消息,則恆指考驗16,800至17,000點支持機會仍相當高。
(筆者為證監會持牌人,並未持有相關股份)
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美股反彈科技股造好 恆指萬七點料有支持
耀才研究部稱,隔晚(4日)美股三大指數反彈,當中以納指表現最佳,上升1.35%,道指及標普500指數則分別上升0.4%及0.8%。數據方面,9月ADP私人就業職位新增僅8.9萬人,遠低於市場預期之15萬人,為2021年1月新低。至於反映中概股表現之金龍指數則微跌0.27%。
至於港股延續周二跌勢,恆指最多曾跌223點,再創今年新低,黃金周消費概念股繼續捱沽,個別如京東-SW(09618.HK)更創香港上市新低,資源相關股亦見沽壓;不過本地地產及則有所反彈,另友邦(01299.HK)亦連升第二日。最終恆指收報17,195點,以收市價計為去年11月10日以來低位。科指亦跌1.7%,收報3,752點。在缺乏北水下成交淡靜,只得576.26億元。外圍市況動盪加上缺乏利好消息,恐怕恆指短期仍會持續尋底,並考驗萬七點關口。
技術分析方面,恆指昨日低位出現「錘頭」,意味短期或有機會反彈,不過上方阻力重重,現時平均線均整齊並呈下移情況,後市若不能升破10天線亦即17,611點,則恆指後市仍難有所起色。
(筆者為證監會持牌人)~
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