《大行報告》大摩:GenAI未來三年料影響美國44%勞工 看好Alphabet(GOOGL.US)及亞馬遜(AMZN.US)
摩根士丹利就生成式人工智能(GenAI)發表研究報告,析了該技術對勞工市場及企業的潛在影響,認爲有助將更大範圍業務流程自動化。同時,支持GenAI運作的投入成本正在急降,對軟件生產帶來強大擴張效果。因此,GenAI將會影響勞工市場,擴大企業軟件TAM(總可用市場),並帶動公有雲服務開支增加。
報告提出四大總結。首先,在勞工市場方面,隨着AI算力擴張,料未來三年美國受到GenAI影響的勞工佔比將由現時的25%擴至44%,涉額由現在2.1萬億美元將增至4.1萬億美元。
其次是大摩指分析顯示軟件委託方可捕捉4.1萬億美元對勞工市場影響的5%,意味未來三年美國GenAI企業軟件TAM可達2,050億美元;全球規模則估算達8,200億美元。企業採用進度料影響對TAM的滲透速度及深度。
第三,大摩續稱,按歷史企業科技採用曲線及對採用的三大因素分析:即投資回報率(ROI)、摩擦及預算,料未來三年企業業務量潛在GenAI採用率約20%。
最後,20%潛在GenAI採用率意味美國及全球未來三年GenAI企業軟件開支分別達400億及1,500億美元;AI算力、軟件提成率及企業滲透率是該行開支預測的主要變項。
報告認爲,Alphabet(GOOGL.US)及亞馬遜(AMZN.US)在驅動及受惠GenAI趨勢上處有利位置,隨着勞工市場及工作職務、工序日益數字化及碎片化,有時更自動化,對雲端服務需求(SaaS、IaaS、PaaS)日增。AI擴大市場領導者的規模優勢,Alphabet及亞馬遜都擁有重大數據及分銷優勢,並有強大資產負債表支持重大投資。
大摩稱,Alphabet全棧線AI算力(SaaS、IaaS、PaaS)及每2%的AI開支可驅動Google雲端平臺(GCP)5%的上行空間;而公有雲AI開支每獲得2個百分點市佔則料在2026年帶來約30億美元GCP增量收入。對亞馬遜而言,報告料公有雲AI每獲得2個百分點市佔可在2026年爲亞馬遜雲服務平臺(AWS)帶來30億美元(2%)增量收入。
報告予Alphabet及亞馬遜「增持」評級,目標價分別155美元及175美元。
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