花旗推出美國政府關門手冊:應避免哪些股票、應否買入黃金
華爾街迎來9月份整體表現差勁的最後一個交易日,石油供應緊張,市場擔心通脹壓力令美聯儲於更長時間內維持較高的利率,美國國債孳息率飆升至16年來的高位,標普500指數9月下跌逾4%。
不幸的局面延至10月,美國政府相信於未來數日不太可能達成預算協議,美國政府有機會於本周日關閉。花旗分析師David Glass發表報告指,美國政府有機會關閉,時間可能很短暫,但由於數百萬政府員工沒有得到工資,政府可自由支配支出約佔國內生產總值的1.9%,政府關門或令美國GDP每周減少0.1個百分點。
然而,花旗稱,如果政府相對快速重開,加上支付工資,對GDP影響或迅速逆轉,但由於缺乏官方數據公布,不確定性導致波動性加劇,整個市場不會太輕鬆。
市場方面,花旗篩選與美國政府相關度高的股票,按市值計算為輝瑞(PFE.US) 、Accenture(ACN.US) 、 RTX(RTX.US) 、 Honeywell(HON.US) 、 波音(BA.US) 、 Lockheed Martin(LMT.US) 、 通用電氣(GE.US) 、 CVS Health(CVS.US) 、 Northrop Grumman(NOC.US)和General Dynamics(GD.US) 。
花旗預期,政府關閉對固定收益資產的影響相對較小,料恐慌VIX指數持續上升後緩慢消散,固定收益的波動性上升,但相對短暫。股市表現則取決於政府停工時間,即使停工時間較長,美股或出現數個百分點的拋售,並於10至15日後逆轉,但若果政府停工少於5日,影響則不明顯。花旗表示,最近的市場表現表明股市或預計今次停工時間較長,雖然是次股市拋售主要因利率上升。
至於黃金方面,花旗指出,貴金屬在短期停工及停工之後將下跌,若停工持續存在且看不到明確的解決方案,預期黃金將有買盤,金價平均上升約2%,並於接下來數月保持強勢。花旗稱,對於希望對沖長期停工風險的投資者而言,黃金較美元為更好的選擇。
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