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《大行報告》中金:阿里媽媽和騰訊廣告深化合作 有利互利共贏
中金發表報告表示,本周一(25日)阿里媽媽UD和騰訊廣告宣布合作進一步深化,實現微信和淘寶廣告流量的直連,並推出「雙11超引爆計劃」。該行指騰訊(00700.HK)和阿里(9988.HK)生態實質性連接,核心業務合作進一步深化。2023年上半年,騰訊廣告和阿里媽媽首次在聯合補貼、視頻號信息流資源上線、朋友圈廣告、直達淘寶APP等領域展開合作,本次合作後微信視頻號、朋友圈、小程序等可直接跳轉淘寶天貓店舖、商品詳情頁和淘寶直播間。該行認為這一合作是騰訊和阿里面臨共同競爭對手和互聯互通大趨勢下邁出的實質性一步,有利於騰訊和阿里互利共贏。 該行指於騰訊而言,與阿里合作的進一步深化,不僅可以獲取電商平台更多的廣告預算份額,而且可以提升騰訊系產品(特別是小程序、朋友圈、視頻號等)在電商行業的轉化率等核心指標,份額獲取有望從電商平台延伸至商家,實現更大規模的業務增量(騰訊廣告與阿里媽媽UD的3年合作生態共建中,騰訊廣告消耗增速提升278%、商家增長358%)。 可以看到,騰訊正在持續推動廣告收入增長。第一是善於撬動微信的產品槓桿,通過視頻號,小程序等在優勢業務上進一步挖掘其生態及商業化價值;第二是積極開放,從前期較弱行業積極找增量,電商即為典型案例;第三是抓住技術進步的浪潮,隨著混元助手大模型的發布,AI有望進一步融合進騰訊廣告業務,進一步實現效率提升,驅動廣告業務持續增長。 中金表示,阿里流量向上空間打開,用戶和商家生態有望健康增長。該行認為阿里作為線上交易平台,天然對流量有強烈訴求,而流量的缺乏也讓阿里在面對內容平台競爭時應對乏力。從當下看,流量是淘天集團「做大用戶規模、實現正循環」策略的起點,騰訊是中國互聯網最大的流量池之一,QM數據顯示2023年8月MAU達10.5億人,人均單日時長91分鐘,對於淘寶APP而言微信有2.7億獨佔MAU,該行認為微信的流量屬性和淘寶天貓適配性較優,騰訊和阿里深化合作,有望推動平台商家和用戶生態的健康增長。 該行維持各騰訊和阿里的收入和盈利預測不變,重申對騰訊「跑贏行業」評級及目標價475港元;該行維持阿里巴巴-SW「跑贏行業」評級及目標價137港元。(wl/u) ~
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