《大行報告》中金:內房新政下北京樓市小幅回暖 政策或將再發力
中金發表研究報告指,內地推行「認房不認貸」新政策,有助於提振居民置業意欲。該行近期造訪北京石景山區、通州區和大興區的三個剛性需求及剛性改善型項目,發現到訪客群中置換需求佔比明顯提升,亦發現調查項目成交量按周平均增長20%至30%。
該行指出,當局若持續在政策上發力,疏通樓市困難點,例如改善二手市場流動性及降低住房支付壓力,或將促進樓市進一步回穩及回升,又指調查發現「賣一買一」的置換需求能否釋放,與居民所持有剛需單位能否有效流轉高度相關,若相關待售單位總價低、更適合剛需,或在購房社保要求、首付比例上進一步優化,則可望推動剛需群體入市,提升內地房地產市場流動性。
中金預期,進一步降低房貸利率亦有可能有助於緩解居民房貸支付壓力,促進觀望需求入市,認為重點城市限購、限貸方面的需求支持政策仍有望持續落地,疊加效應利好市場情緒,因此繼續看好內房股未來3至6個月表現。
中金首選股為龍湖(00960.HK)、綠城中國(03900.HK)、中國海外(00688.HK)、華潤置地(01109.HK)、建發國際(01908.HK)及越秀地產(00123.HK),全數予「跑贏行業」評級。物管股方面,中金則看好萬物雲(02602.HK)、保利物業(06049.HK)、中海物業(02669.HK)、綠城服務(02869.HK)及綠城管理控股(09979.HK),同予「跑贏行業」評級。目標價詳見另表。
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