《大行報告》海通國際:藥明生物(02269.HK)海外產能投產營運順利 新增分子數趨勢改善
海通國際發表研究報告指出,藥明生物(02269.HK)上半年營業收入84.9億人民幣,按年增長17.8%,毛利率41.9%,歸母經調整純利28.38億元人民幣,按年增長0.1%。當中,新增分子數趨勢向好,上半年公司未完成訂單為201.1億美元,按年增長9%,其中未完成服務訂單135.6億美元、未完成潛在里程碑付款訂單65.5億美元,其中三年內未完成訂單35億美元,非新冠三年訂單按年增長約20%,為未來業績增長提供訂單保障。
此外,該行指藥明生物海外產能投產營運順利,看好產能利用率爬坡後減少對毛利率的拖累。公司海外搭建從DNA到BLA的全產業鏈平台進展順利:歐美營運穩步發展,2024預計7至8個DS PPQ。愛爾蘭生產基地2024年起將執行商業化生產,2025年產能已接近訂滿。今年上半年12,000升生產線實現68批次的原液生產,成功率達100%。已有14個原液生產工廠,產能約262,000升,未來原液產能將擴大至580,000升以上;已有9個制劑灌裝車間投入營運,其中1個專門用於生產抗體偶聯制劑。截止目前,藥明生物全球共在建13個生產基地。
該行預期藥明生物今年收入199億元人民幣(常規業務佔192億元人民幣,新冠業務佔7億元人民幣),收入增速30%,其中非新冠按年增速60%,歸母經調整淨利潤62.1億,按年增速26%,考慮到公司在大分子CRDMO的全球龍頭地位,商業模式優秀,各技術平台(單抗、雙抗、XDC、疫苗等等)在細分領域的競爭優勢,該行認為公司今年非新冠業務的收入保持按年增長60%的高增速,快於可比公司,將其目標價由102.4元下調至79.39元,維持「優於大市」評級。
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