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《大行報告》中金:內地降印花稅對短期市場情緒提振明顯 關注政策組合拳長期影響
中金發表報告指,內地證券交易印花稅實施減半徵收,短期對市場情緒有明顯提振作用,關注政策組合拳的長期積極影響。回顧1997年以來,A股印花稅的五次下調,調整當日大盤及券商指數均有明顯升幅。以調整後一月來看,大盤表現有所分化,券商板塊仍然實現正收益。 該行認為,今次印花稅下調的時間及幅度均超預期,政策力度的加強,有助於直接提振市場信心,也強化了資本市場政策的積極信號,在降低交易成本、提升交易暢通性等長期問題上取得突破,中長期而言,促進市場積極穩健發展。 另外,中證監公布階段性收緊IPO節奏,修訂融資融券交易實施細則,一系列政策加快落地,有助強化逆周期調節機制,長期促進優質券商業務擴容及效率提升。該行認為,結合早前的政策,保證金的下調、衍生工具的豐富、優質券商資本約束的潛在放寬,將從供需兩方面,促進券商的資本效率及ROE中樞提升,對於證券行業、尤其是龍頭公司長期利好。 報告建議積極佈局券商板塊,個股關注資本使用效率有望提升的龍頭券商(華泰/中信等)、經紀及特色券商(銀河/廣發等)、彈性標的(港美股券商富途/老虎)。
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